November 7, 2011
by papicek
“Speaking For Myself . . .”
In an earlier post, I expressed my feeling that the story of wealth inequality playing out across America was merely the tip of the iceberg. It is, in fact, little more than a soundbite. In various and subtle ways, the structural weaknesses and injustices (negative externalities) generated by free financial markets impose costs many of which remain off balance sheets but are, nonetheless, imposed on all either through market prices or through taxes. Simply leveling the playing field through measures like the financial transaction tax and Tobin tax, which I think are vital, does nothing to address other underlying problems which unregulated finance has inflicted upon us all. Today’s absentee landlords are known as shareholders, and include a huge proportion of working Americans, who know very little of where their money is being invested and nothing at all about who is managing their money or how they are managing it.
Fortunately for me, we have yet another example of Wall Street mismanagement: 150,000 is the number of investors, some of whom will have to wait for years before they see their money, directly affected by the MF Global collapse. I know these people, or people very much like them, and in the larger sense, almost all of us are these people. If you have a 401k or an IRA. If you have or are thinking of investing in financial markets, you are one of these people. You are those who largely accept the tenets of capitalism (I do, but with caveats): that if you work hard enough, you get a little lucky, and you get to reap the rewards of your efforts. If you are one of those who believes in the integrity and good faith of those you entrust to handle your money, do your accounting, and those who run the firms you invest in, you are one of those people. I believe markets are the most efficient means to determine value/price, though not always-witness the housing bubble. There is a very good case for wondering if this has been warped as well – take a good, cold hard look at securities markets today and ask yourself the degree to which greater fool theory determines value, because really, who is a value investor anymore? What else does technical analysis actually describe? Underlying value? Please. We treat the hard-work-yields-success paradigm as if it were a cause-and-effect dynamic, but the truth is, more than a little luck is needed. And to those who wish to throw the maxim that people make their own luck (through diligence and intelligence) at me, I’d have to say that luck plays a far greater part than you might think. One can fail through lack of effort at a crucial point or the flaw intellect has failed to detect, but neither hard work nor smarts will guarantee success either, because strength has limit, knowledge is not perfect and the state of the marketplace itself is dynamic. The markets at all levels, like life, really are a gamble.
We assume that the managers act with integrity (but we don’t know), and that the regulators are on the case making sure that forms are followed (which is hardly ever true).
So I admire the small business entrepreneurs, whether they make it or not. They makes the attempt knowing that they don’t know everything they need to know, and hope that flexibility, determination and thought will suffice to make up the shortfall; and they hope that the vagaries of pure chance and hazard pass them by.
About a year ago, a customer came up to me with a few books on how to start your own business. Her teen-aged daughter stood next to her. Dressed as a professional, she looked bright enough, and I took a deep breath then asked her if she was thinking of starting her own business. She said she was. I glanced over at her daughter, then looked her straight in the eye and told her that if she decided to go ahead with this, she should have the backing of her family beforehand, because she wasn’t going to be available for them for several years, and that was the case if all went well. She smiled and thanked me.
I saw her again a few weeks ago. I didn’t recognize her, but she knew me. She told me I was right. She said that her business was doing great and she had even been offered a publishing deal in the event she wanted to write a book. (If not a secondary profit generator, it is at least fabulous marketing opportunity.) She told me that she thought that she could control the business, rather than the reverse, but that plainly, business demands had trumped all other concerns.
Running a business is more absorbing, more demanding, than having a family. I know. I’ve been through the startup adventure five times.
For the record, about 66% of all startups fail within 36 months. Yet another reason to admire their grit, and the truth is that their hard work is rewarded with failure rather than success by a whopping margin.
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